Kenya is seeking a larger share of international commerce conducted through digital platforms, payments and cross-border online transactions, and the country’s digital trade is entering a more consequential stage. Cabinet Secretary for Investment, Trade and Industry Lee Kinyanjui said Kenya can become a leading African digital trade hub, while identifying infrastructure, logistics, financing and regulation as barriers that need to be addressed. He made the remarks at a high-level workshop on advancing digital trade in Kenya, organised by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
The government estimates that the digital economy could contribute Sh662 billion to Kenya’s GDP by 2028. Kinyanjui also cited a global digital trade market worth $8.75 trillion in 2025, equivalent to about 25 per cent of global trade in goods and services. The central question is whether Kenya’s existing systems can work together well enough for businesses to sell, receive payments, obtain financing and deliver products across borders at a competitive cost.
Kenya begins from a strong position. The mobile market recorded almost 88 million SIM subscriptions by June 2026, alongside 52.26 million smartphones and nearly 55 million mobile broadband subscriptions, although SIM subscriptions and smartphone connections do not represent unique users. Kenya’s e-commerce market could grow from about Sh336.7 billion to roughly Sh496 billion by 2029, with internet access, mobile payments and online shopping supporting the expansion. Taxation, electronic invoicing, delivery networks, consumer protection and cross-border rules remain practical constraints.
Mobile money providers are moving closer to global commerce. Safaricom and Pesapal introduced M-Pesa tap-to-pay and dynamic QR payments at Pesapal point-of-sale terminals in October, with Scan-to-Pay already available at more than 60,000 merchant outlets and Safaricom targeting 500,000 outlets within 12 months. Airtel Money is preparing to introduce a Mastercard-powered virtual card in Kenya for international online purchases and digital services, and the product has already issued more than 875,000 cards across other African markets since its 2025 launch.
Safaricom is pursuing a similar connection between M-Pesa and international commerce through M-Pesa GlobalPay and other services. Its global payments revenue rose 22.3 per cent to KSh4.8 billion in the financial year ended March 2026, a figure that includes international transfers, virtual cards and Google Play Store payments. Total M-Pesa revenue reached KSh182.7 billion over the same period, and M-Pesa Africa reported its first operating profit in 2026, with revenue rising 20.6 per cent to Sh8.08 billion and a user base of 60 million across Africa.
Financing remains a major constraint. This week the African Development Bank and Family Bank agreed a $10 million trade-finance facility designed to expand access to foreign currency and financing for Kenyan businesses, including SMEs in manufacturing, agriculture, healthcare, renewable energy and general commerce. The African Development Bank estimates Africa’s trade-finance gap at more than $74 billion, and Family Bank says MSMEs account for more than 80 per cent of its customer base. Digital sales, payment and transaction histories could also give lenders additional insight into enterprises that lack conventional financial records, provided that data access, credit models and customer information safeguards are sound.
Logistics, trust and regulation will shape how far digital trade can grow. Kinyanjui highlighted customs, logistics, transport and trade facilitation, since an online order still requires goods to cross a border. The Communications Authority’s 2024/25 Consumer Satisfaction Survey found that 71.3 per cent of respondents use phones to access e-commerce platforms, which places cybersecurity and consumer protection at the centre of consumer confidence. The proposed National Payment System Bill would give the Central Bank of Kenya broader powers over payment service providers and payment system operators, covering interoperability, open finance, outsourcing, system audits, clearing and settlement, cross-border payments and payment transparency.
Regional frameworks give Kenyan businesses a route to wider markets. Kenya’s participation in East African Community digital trade initiatives, the AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol and the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement could connect companies to a continental market of more than 1.4 billion people. Kinyanjui said investment would continue in digital infrastructure, including efforts to narrow the urban-rural connectivity gap, and that digital skills among MSMEs, women and young people would receive greater attention.
